NL West Report: Seven Reasons Why the Padres Will Win the Division

 NL West Report - Seven Reasons the Padres will Win the Division

You read that right. Foolish analysts and writers across the globe predicted San Diego's ineligibility this offseason. However, San Diego has already shown some legitimate clout, highlighted by an eight-game win streak (six of them against NL West foes).

Chase Headley is hitting at.379 with an 179 wRC+, and a.434 WOBA. Headley's breakout season brings depth and variety to an otherwise boring lineup. (Apart from Adrian Gonzalez who has won four straight games).

They are not defying Pythagoras. Their Pythagorean W - L matches their 11-7 record.

Bud Black's Club is a good example of a large sample. They have won 44 games since August 1. Rockies have two more wins than any other team in NL West.

Beyond the Boxscore Power Ratings believe San Diego is on track. They were ranked 4th by MLB last Wednesday, before the Padres won a weekend series with Reds. The same system predicted that they would easily beat the Giants at the end of the season, and it was right.

The projections for a weaker rotation may be far more than those of Clayton Richard and Mat Latos, who both have breakthrough seasons. Both have demonstrated signs of exactly that. Latos' 3.57 ERA is 8th in the NL for best walk rate. Richard's impressive performance is even more impressive, with a 3.38 ERA. The overall staff has allowed only 62 runs, which ranks third in MLB.

A division can't be won in April. However, you can win it by May. May is Saturday, which means that the Padres will be in first place.

Their bullpen back is capable of turning close games into wins regularly.

Now, you either believe the Padres to be legitimate or are convinced of my growing insanity. In either case, I am disappointed in you. These are the reasons the Padres will not win the division. This is what you should really believe.

Chase Headley's season is a perfect example of unsustainability. Headley has a staggering.429 BABIP and a line drive percentage well above his career. The Padres are currently 5th overall in MLB in batting average (behind the Yankees). In March, I said to everyone that the Padres' offense is way better than anybody thought. But they're not anywhere near this level yet. There will be some regression.

A pythagorean average through one tenth season is not a reliable predictor.

They have been successful for 2.5 months but it isn't six months. The other four teams have clearly better talent and will not let them down.

BtB's power rating has a lot of noise this early in season. The Rockies dropped from third to 18th in the 3-3 week. This is not a reason to be too concerned about them.

The top end rotation is still very weak.

While the Padres lead by 12 games, there's no reason for them to be in control of the lead after May 6. Hot Padres isn't something new. Remember that they won a ten-game streak in May and fell below.500 in June.

While the bullpen's back end is strong, it's not sufficient to compensate for any of the team's developing aspects.

Jayson Stark is in agreement: The Padres are a deceit so far. While the Padres may not win the division they could still upset a team's record. The Rockies are already two games ahead of San Francisco and Arizona in that area. Webb On Should Padres Be Bad In Division One