Break the System: Martingale Strategy

 Break the System: Martingale Strategy

We aim to expose the many strategies and systems that players are being sold as ways to beat the casino in our "Break the System” series. There is very little that a player can do to change the outcome of casino games. Never trust anyone who claims to have a better way than these casino games. Our "Break the System Series" was previously presented. We also looked at the simple case of the Masse Egale System. This article will focus on the Martingale Strategy which is one of the most commonly used systems.

What is the Martingale Strategy exactly?

Martingale Strategy is an easy strategy. You will need to decide the size of your bet that you will use. When you first bet, you'll only need to bet exactly one unit. If your bet is successful, your bet size will be one unit. If you lose your bet, your bet size is doubled. You will see a one-unit return every time your bet wins. Each time you lose a wager, your next bet size doubles. It's simple.

How Does the Martingale Strategy Work?

Because you are increasing your stake every time, you will eventually win 1 more unit than you lost. A loss of 3 consecutive bets will result in 7 units. But if your next spin is a success, you'll win 8 units. This would give you a 1unit profit. You can win slowly 1 unit at the same time to build your bankroll.

Why does the Martingale Strategy not work?

There are two major problems with the Martingale Strategy. It assumes you have an inexhaustible bankroll. A 1943 American casino saw 32 consecutive spins in which the colour red was spotted. If you used Martingale Strategy to bet $1 per unit and bet on black during the event, your wager would have been $4,294,967.296 per spin. This is even after you consider that up to that point you would have lost $4,294,967.295.

Let's suppose you are Jeff Bezos, and have unlimited money. You're still restricted by the fact that almost all casinos place table limits on their games. Your system will be severely limited if you are unable to place a large bet in order to recover your losses.

Streaks are what ultimately matter. The Martingale Strategy assumes your bankroll will not be affected by a lengthy streak. This assumption does not hold true. This strategy would result in a losing streak of 10 games per 784 games. At that point, you would have lost 1023 unit and your next wager would be 1024.

Probability of the Martingale System Working

The following scenario will be considered, just like last time. It will allow us to calculate how likely it is that we go bankrupt.

Consider that you have a total bankroll of k units.

The Martingale Strategy will be followed until either of the following two things happens:

Your bankroll can be doubled and you will reach 2x k units.

You lose your entire bankroll and reach zero units.

When one of these two things happens, you must stop playing and keep your bankroll.

You will only bet on outside bets (e.g., red/black/1-18/19-36) which have a probability of success p = 18/37.

For simplicity sake, let's consider the situation where there are no table limits. If there is insufficient money to place the next bet, the bet value will be reset to 1 unit. THE MARTINGALE STRATEGY - A BETTING SYSTEM