Are the best gamblers skilled or just lucky?

 Are the Best Gamblers Skilled or Lucky?


You should always look up when you visit a Las Vegas Casino. There are hundreds of cameras that hang from the ceiling, like black barnacles, and they can be seen watching the tables below. The artificial eyes protect the casino from the light-footed and quick-witted. Casinos had a clear definition of cheating up until the 1960s. Casinos didn't have to worry about losing hands, or players slipping high-value cash into their stake after the ball had landed. The games were excellent; they were unbeatable.


It turned out that this was false.


Edward Thorp, a math professor, found a loophole within blackjack that was large enough to accommodate a best-selling textbook. Then, a group physics students took control of roulette, the traditional epitome for chance. The debate about whether luck or skill determines who wins the lottery jackpots is spreading beyond the casino floor. It could even impact the fate the once lucrative American poker market. U.S. authorities closed down major poker websites in 2011 to end the "poker bubble" that had gripped the nation for several years. The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act provided the legislative power for the shakeup. The 2006 Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act was passed. It banned bank transfers that were related to betting if the "opportunity of winning is predominantly subject to luck." How can we define "a game of chance"?


Poker Faces Federal authorities have also taken on big poker companies and pursued small-scale players. Lawrence DiCristina ran a poker club on Staten Island, New York. The case went to trial in 2012. DiCristina pleaded guilty to operating an illegal gambling operation.


DiCristina moved to dismiss the conviction. He was back in court next month to defend his case. DiCristina had economist Randal Sheeb called as expert witness during the hearing. Heeb was trying to convince Judge that poker was primarily a skill game and did not fall under the definition illegal gambling. He presented data that he had collected from millions of online poker sites and showed that the top-ranked players have won almost every game, with only a few exceptions. However, the worst players lost every year. Poker is a skillful game. It's no surprise that people can make a living playing it.


David DeRosa, an economist, was also an expert witness. Heeb did not agree with him on poker. DeRosa used a computer program to simulate what might occur if 1,000 people toss a coin 10,000 times. Tails would be equivalent to a win, and random numbers would indicate how many times someone won the toss. However, the results were similar to those presented by Heeb: Only a few people won consistently and another group lost frequently. It wasn't proof that a coin toss required skill. But, this just shows that, much like the innumerable monkeys who typed, unlikely events can occur when we look at large enough groups. The Cities of Luck in Gambling

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